2.1. Performance of the Regional Public Security in 2010
Table 1 presents the Victimization and Criminality Index of the State of Mato Grosso in 2010, as well as the values of standard indicators that compose it. The index Victimization (column 1 in Table IX) is the result of the arithmetic sum of values obtained in seven indicators of evaluation model (column II to VII). For the final calculation of the index value, the scale was recalculated 0-10. A red color scale was used to indicate variations in the performance Index. The assignment of colors — for the Index and the standard indicators — follows the highlight logic of the worst situations. The higher the value of the indicator (or Index), the phenomenon is most prevalent in the region and, consequently, the greater color intensity.
Table 2 presents data on the Variation Index from 2009 to 2010 (column IX in Table 1), whose value derives from the arithmetic sum of the values related to the seven indicators of the evaluation model (columns II to VIII), recalculated with a scale from 0 to 10. For the Variation Index, a Brown scale was adopted, with the same criteria used for Table 1.
The indicators and indexes spatial distribution in the maps follows the same criteria for the assignment of colors. The gross values in 2009 and 2010 and their respective variation rates can be found in the Statistical Annex.
Table 1
Standardized Indicators and Victimization and Criminality Index of Evaluation Model of Policy for Public Security, according to Regional - 2010
Table 2
Standardized Indicators and Victimization and Criminality Index of Evaluation Model of Policy for Public Security, according to Regional - 2010
Tables 1 and 2 show the absence of a “good” regional situation in the Victimization and Criminality Index and in the Variation Index. Put in another way, none of the regions presented a low presence of criminality and victimization phenomenon in all its indicators, and no regions presented substantive improvement in reducing violence.
The group with the worst performance in the public security area in 2010, given the high rates of Victimization and Criminality, is composed by large population cities: the Cuiabá municipality, Rondonopolis municipality, Várzea Grande municipality, and the Sinop municipality. In other words, the state's largest urban areas are those with increased violence and insecurity. It is noteworthy that most indicators used in the evaluation matrix shows a ocurrence of homicide, i.e., the last and most serious consequence of an act of aggression and/or violence committed by others. Therefore, the reading of indicators should take into consideration the extreme or critical scenario that reveal high levels in the Victimization and Criminality Index.
Cuiabá is the municipality in the state that has the worst situation in the Victimization and Criminality Index in 2010 (= 7.23). In other words, it can be considered the most violent municipality in the state. It presents the “very bad” situation in four of seven indicators of the model. Theft of assets had the highest rate in the state in 2010. In vehicle theft, this is lower only when compared to the case of the Várzea Grande municipality. Along with the Várzea Grande municipality, it also presents critical results regarding indicators that measure violence against children, adolescents and young adults (= 1.00 and 0.90, respectively).
Moreover, very high values in these indicators in 2010 are accompanied by not very favorable trajectories in rates compared to 2009. The performance trajectory compared to 2009 was worse regarding robbery and theft of assets (excluding vehicles). Although the variation in traffic fatality rate has been the best in the State of Mato Grosso, the performance trajectory is poor regarding robbery and car theft, because the rates are practically stable. Although violence against women has been reduced, rates remain troubling with respect to the downward trend in homicides against adolescents and youth. In short, in the City of Cuiabá, high criminality and violence rates in 2010 are not accompanied by significant reduction of these values when compared with 2009.
The municipality of Várzea Grande also presented a critical picture in 2010. Its Victimization and Criminality Index is the third highest in the state (= 6.58) and presented the “very bad” situation in four (04) of the seven indicators of the evaluation matrix. Two victimization indicators and one of criminality had the highest rate in the state (= 1.00), intentional lethal violence, property crimes and murders of young people (19-29 years). The rate for the murder of children and adolescents (0-18 years) is also among the highest in the state.
In the indicator of crimes against property, vehicles, the municipality not only has the highest variation index of the state (= 1.00), as these rates have increased substantially from 2009 to 2010, i.e., it has the highest rate of change of the state (1.00). This value indicates the trajectory of worsening situation in the city compared with itself in 2009.
About the indicators of victimization, the rates in 2010 are the result of a trajectory of worsening in rates of intentional lethal violence, rates of homicide against children and adolescents and rates of homicide against adults when compared to 2009. This means that not only the indicators are comparatively among the worst in the state in 2010 but its trajectory when compared to 2009 was a negative change in these same indicators.
On the other hand, the municipality of Várzea Grande provides the best rate of the state in indicator that measures traffic violence, and showed a slight improvement in the trajectory compared to 2009. Although its performance in this indicator deserves to be highlighted, caution is needed in interpreting these data, since the indicator on violence in traffic measures fatality, i.e. death. In other words, a situation of high rate of accidents that not involves death, although it can cause irreparable physical damage, it is not captured by this indicator.
The municipality also had a relatively low rate of homicides against women and showed substantial improvement in the trajectory of this indicator in 2009 and 2010. That is, it decreased the rate of homicide committed against women. Also showed a substantial drop in robberies and theft of assets that do not involve vehicles, from 2009 to 2010.
The municipality of Rondonopolis had the second lowest rate of Criminality and Victimization Index of the state (= 6.71), although this result is “pulled” by extreme values on two indicators of violence (women homicide as well as children and adolescents). The data indicate that this was one of the most violent municipalities of the state in 2010. The municipality had a situation of “very bad” or “bad” on the indicators of intent lethality and in all indicators of homicides (women, children and adolescents, young adults).
More worrisome is the trajectory of this municipality: the homicides rates of children and adolescents, of young people as well as intentional lethal violence worsened considerably from 2009 to 2010. Except the indicator of violence against women — measured by the homicides rate — which decreased, other indicators show that the City of Rondonopolis has worsened its situation of violence. Note also that these indicators measure an extreme situation, i.e., death, indicating that violent actions which are not derived from killing are not captured by the indicator.
The data in tables 1 and 2 also show that the municipality of Rondonopolis is one of the most violent in the state, but its criminality rates, as measured by crimes against property, are not among the highest in the State of Mato Grosso. In other words, in this municipality, victimization should be the main factor to be addressed.
The municipality of Sinop has the fourth highest criminality and victimization rate of the state in 2010 (= 6.24). It presents very high level in the indicator rates of robbery and theft of assets (excluding vehicles) (= 0.89) and high rates in the indicators of women and children and adolescent homicide (0-18 years) — rates of 0.70 and 0.78, respectively.
Apart from being among the cities with the highest mortality rate for homicide in the state, the Sinop municipality has a critical situation with respect to the trajectory of victimization rates between 2009 and 2010. The rates of intentional lethal violence and killings of women increased, and this rate increased significantly.
We identified a second sub-group of regions with performance “middling” in 2010 accompanied by worsening of the indicators between 2009 and 2010. The regions belonging to this group have in common the fact that their trajectory compared to 2009 was only average or even bad; that is, they tend to have a worsening of violence and criminality. They are: Diamantino, Pontes Lacerda, Porto Alegre do Norte and Tangará da Serra.
The region of Diamantino has the highest rate of criminality and victimization (= 5.27) in this group. With regard to individual indicators, it presents a “very bad” scenario in which the rates of unintended lethal violence in the traffic (= 0.82) and in the rate of women homicide showed the highest state rate (= 1, 00). In this last indicator is the region which represents the most severe and, therefore, the highest levels of impact of the problem in all of the State of Mato Grosso.
More worrying than its scenario in 2010 is the trajectory of this region between 2009 and 2010. The situation in 2010 is the result of the fact that the unintentional lethality in traffic remained stable and the female mortality rate for homicide more than doubled. For the remaining indicators, the trajectory was also worsening. The rates of intentional lethal violence as well as robbery and theft of vehicles increased, while the others remained stable. In short, although the region of Diamantino does not present the highest rates of victimization and criminality of the state, its trajectory in relation to the previous year does not indicate a reduction of this phenomenon, revealing stability or worsening of the problem.
Tangará da Serra also has a critical situation as well. Although its Criminality and Victimization Index in 2010 (= 4.74) is not among the highest in the state, the variation index between 2009 and 2010 is among the highest in the state. This indicates a path of worsening violence and criminality.
The region presents a situation of “good-middling” in just one indicator for the year 2010, and on the other it has a “middling” performance, and in intentional lethal violence the situation in 2010 was “bad.”
Its Variation Index, however, is among the highest in the State of Mato Grosso (= 5.68). It was in this region where there was an increase of more intense intentional lethal violence (= 1.00). The rates of property crime remained stable as well as the rates of unintentional lethal violence and women homicide. However, homicide rates for young people (19-29 years) increased considerably. In summary, the data in tables 1 and 2 indicate that Tangará da Serra is increasingly becoming a more violent region, instead of reducing their rates of victimization.
Porto Alegre do Norte is not among the most violent and unsafe regions of the state, but its trajectory related to 2009 is deteriorated in the public security frame. It is the only region with a Variation Index of “bad” when compared to itself in 2009, with variation rate = 7.10. It presents a high rate of intentional lethal violence in 2010 (= 0.89) and this result is derived from the rate stability of this indicator when compared to 2009. Moreover, there is an alarming increase in the rates of unintentional lethal violence in traffic, of women homicide, of child and adolescent murder, followed by increased rates of vehicle theft and robbery.
Pontes Lacerda is the region in this group with a less alarming situation. Its Criminality and Victimization Index in 2010 is equivalent to 4.20. It presents, however, a very high rate in the indicator of measuring the intentional lethal violence (= 0.77). More than that, the rate that gave rise to this rate is only slightly lower than the rate shown in 2009. A similar frame is presented to the indicator that measures the non-intentional lethal violence in traffic, and although rates are lower than those found in the four major cities in the state, this rate was high and remained stable in 2010 when compared to 2009. Except for the rate of women homicide, which showed substantial reduction compared to 2009, on all other indicators, the trajectory of Pontes Lacerda region is quite similar: a fairly high rate of violence and criminality in 2010 are an expression of stability in relation to the values presented in 2009.
A third group brings together those regions that, even though they had a performance described as
“good-middling” in the Criminality and Victimization Index in 2010, presented a preoccupying performance in at least one indicator of the evaluation matrix. They are: Barra do Garças/Alto Araguaia, Cáceres and Cuiabá/Várzea Grande.
As indicated previously, Barra do Garças and Alto Araguaia regions, both with populations less than 100,000 inhabitants, were added to achieve the adopted population scale, resulting in Barra do Garças/Alto Araguaia region. Although its Victimization and Criminality Index is not among the highest in the State of Mato Grosso (= 2.94), the evaluation matrix allows us to find out that in 2010 this region presented rates of unintentional lethal violence in traffic (= 0,66) and of property crimes (excluding vehicles) (= 0.71), which were very high when compared with other regions of the state.
Although the Variation Indexes for all the indicators that measure violence in 2010 show improvement compared to 2009, the same cannot be said in relation to crimes against property, which remained stable.
The region of Cáceres presented one of the lowest Victimization and Criminality Index in 2010 (= 2.81). However, this index alone does not reveal that this region also had one of the highest rates of property crimes in the same year = (0.69). More than that, though the region has shown improvement in its performance for all indicators from 2009 to 2010, the variation in the rate of property crime was the worst in the state in the period (= 1.00). In short, the property crime seems to be the main problem of the region, and this is the region where the performance of this indicator is among the worst in the state.
The region of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande (which excludes the two largest cities in the state) did not have a high Victimization and Criminality Index in 2010 (= 3.06). This rate was substantially lower than those obtained by the two great cities of the state that showed the highest values of the state. This data indicates, therefore, that violence and criminality are concentrated in large urban centers.
However, the region of Cuiabá and Várzea Grande in 2010 had the highest rate of unintentional lethal violence in traffic (= 1.00), a situation that worsens when we observe the high rate of variation of this indicator between 2009 and 2010 (= 0,72). Thus, traffic violence is not only a serious problem, but also shows a significant increase. Note also a small increase in homicides of children and adolescents from 2009 to 2010.
A fourth group brings together those regions that showed a performance of “good-middling” in 2010 followed by a trajectory of rising violence and criminality rates in respect to 2009 — indicated by the performance of “middling” in Variation Index — in at least one of the indicators. These attributes characterize a possible growing trajectory of insecurity and criminality. They are: Rondonopolis, Juína, Água Boa, Alta Floresta.
The region of Rondonopolis (excluding the municipality of Rondonopolis) presents a situation that combines the highest Victimization and Criminality Index of the third group (= 3.99), with increasing growth from 2009 to 2010 in the rates of homicides against children and adolescents and against young people. Indeed, with respect to the trajectory of this last indicator — violence against young people — this region had the highest Variation Index in the State of Mato Grosso (= 1.00). Also, the rate of intentional lethal violence as well as the rate of children and adolescent homicide increased. Except for a substantial reduction in the rates of property crimes — whether property or vehicles — other indicators remained stable. In other words, even if in 2010, the region of Rondonopolis had not been among the most insecure regions of the state, the trajectory of the region is worsening in the violence indicators.
The Juína region presented in 2010 a Victimization and Criminality Index slightly inferior to the Rondonopolis region (= 3.27). This value is “pulled up” by high rates of violence, in the indicator that measures the intentional lethality (= 0.70) or in the indicator that measures the unintentional lethality of traffic (= 0.64). Such high rates reflect, however, the trajectory of slight improvement related to 2009, when these rates were even higher.
However, the data indicate that in the Juína region, rates of property crimes and vehicle robbery and theft showed appreciable worsening compared to 2009, the same occurred with the rate of homicides against children and adolescents. Although the robbery and theft of vehicles in this region present a less severe panorama in 2010, the trajectory related to previous year could be characterized as “bad.”
Água Boa presents a “good-middling” situation in the Victimization and Criminality Index in 2010 (= 2.16). When compared to other regions of the State of Mato Grosso, it has low rates of vehicle theft and robbery, of homicide of young children and adolescents, and in the indicator of violence in traffic. However, its performance is middling in women homicide and robbery and theft assets rates. However, Água Boa worsened with regard to the rates of property crime and presented a significant increase in the rate of intentional lethal violence. The panorama of 2010 therefore indicates a condition of increased criminality and violence in these indicators.
Alta Floresta also presented one of the lowest Victimization and Criminality Index in the State of Mato Grosso in 2010 (2.33), i.e., it could be considered one of the less violent regions of the state, if our comparison parameter is the other regions of the state in that year. However, this panorama is the result of an increase in rates of unintended lethal violence on traffic as well as homicide of children and adolescents and youth. With the exception for the rate of crimes against property and vehicles (which fell slightly), the trajectory of other violence rates remained stable compared to 2009.
Finally, the Sinop region (excluding the municipality of Sinop) has the lowest Victimization and Criminality Index of the state (= 2.69). In addition, Sinop presents the second lowest Variation Index (= 2.86), indicating an improvement of the situation compared to 2009 for almost all indicators of the evaluation model.
Maps 2 and 3 show the spatial distribution of the Victimization and Criminality Index and the Variation Index for regions of the diagnosis.
Map 2
Distribution of Victimization and Criminality Index
Regions of diagnosis, Mato Grosso
Note: Low = Up to 2, Medium Low = More than 2 to 4, Medium = More than 4 to 6, Medium High = More than 6 to 8; High = More than 8.
Map 3
Distribution of Variation Index
Regions of diagnosis, Mato Grosso
Note: Low = Up to 2, Medium Low = More than 2 to 4, Medium = More than 4 to 6, Medium High = More than 6 to 8; High = More than 8.
The maps above summarize the analysis presented here. They were designed to visually express the results in column IX of the scoreboard. The great cities of the state have the most worrying situation: they presented the worst indicators of victimization and criminality when compared with other regions in 2010 as well as showed a worsening trajectory of these indicators when compared with themselves in 2009.
Another group, consisting of four (04) regional — Pontes Lacerda, Tangará da Serra, Diamantino and Porto Alegre do Norte — presented a worrying situation in the performance of “middling” in Victimization and Criminality Index in these regions.
On the Variation Index stands Porto Alegre do Norte as the only region to present a “bad” situation. As seen, the region has substantially increased the level of violence in traffic and homicides of children and adolescents. The other two regions, seven (07) had an unsatisfactory situation in variation rates between 2009 and 2010.
